Strategy · The calendar moves money
Look at data, not sayings.
Use 76 years of numbers to separate patterns that are still alive from those that are already dead, and learn how to put them into your own trading rules.
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Take away one number, one insight, one twist and one action from every lesson.
The calendar moves money: 8 lessons on stock seasonality
Data, not sayings. Use 76 years of numbers to separate patterns that are still alive from those that are already dead, and learn how to put them into your own trading rules.
New strategy courses are being added one by one
We will keep opening strategy courses organized in the same format, with verified data, explanations of causes, limits and hands-on practice.
Map of the 8 lessons
Eight questions, eight one-line answers.
Published lessons are ready to read now, and the rest will open in turn.
Lesson 1
Why is September so hated?
What exactly is seasonality?
"It is a tilt in probability"
Lesson 2
Sell in May was real. And then it cooled
Are Nov–Apr and May–Oct really different?
"It was different, but the gap narrowed"
Lesson 3
Santa comes, and January speaks
Do year-end effects still hold today?
"The January barometer has weakened and the small-cap effect is dead"
Lesson 4
Stocks were strong on the days money flowed in
Why do turn-of-month and presidential cycle patterns appear?
"Fund-flow patterns disappear when the structure changes"
Lesson 5
Every industry has its own seasons
Which sectors are strong in which season?
"Energy in winter, tech stocks the exception"
Lesson 6
Korea's market calendar was made by taxes
What causes KOSPI and KOSDAQ patterns?
"Rules make them and rules change them"
Lesson 7
Why do patterns die? So how do you use them?
How to verify them and use them as filters
"Condition, action, invalidation: three lines"
Lesson 8
People who made money with the calendar
What did the masters look at when they traded?
"The calendar sets the window only; trade after confirmation"
Five ideas to take away from the course
Use the calendar only as a filter.
These are five messages repeated throughout the 8 lessons.
Seasonality is not a prediction but a tilt in probability
A 44% win rate in September does not mean "it will fall"; it means "lower your expectations."
Only patterns with a cause survive
Patterns rooted in taxes, fiscal year-end closing and real demand remain, while turn-of-month and day-of-week effects with no cause have disappeared since 2006.
Known patterns weaken as they get traded
The gap for Sell in May narrowed from +5.85 percentage points to +2.11 percentage points, and over the last 10 years there is no difference.
Korea's January effect was made by taxes
Because of the major-shareholder tax record date, people sell in December and buy in January. If the rule changes, the pattern changes.
The calendar is a filter, not a signal
All six masters used the calendar only to set the window and confirmed their trades with trend and flows.
For educational purposes only, not investment advice. Past statistics do not guarantee future returns.